Can Oil Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations?
Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.
August 6th, 2019: NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL – DIVERGING SETUPS FOR TECHNICAL TRADERS
At that time, we wrote that we expected Crude oil to break lower from the $62 ppb level and target $55, then $49 based on our original Crude Oil research from May 21, 2019.
Additionally, on July 29, 2019, we authored and posted this article suggesting that Crude Oil would begin a downside move from $55 to levels near $50 :
All of this research was related to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) research post from July 10, 2019: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggest-oil-headed-much-lower-by-early-2020/
This incredible predictive modeling research suggested that Oil would move dramatically lower towards the $50 level, then stall near $50 to $55+ through September and October. Ultimately breaking lower in late October/November to levels near or below $40.
Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis
Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up. This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel. The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis
We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days. There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system. Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders. The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months. Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key. If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations. Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves.
As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com