What One Long-Time Member Understands About Risk, Recovery, And Early Warning Signs

I wanted to take this opportunity to share with you the thoughts and feedback from one of our long-time subscribers.

Jonny Mogs has been part of The Technical Traders community since 2020. Over that time, he has experienced various market environments, seen the ups and downs of investing, and developed a very clear understanding of why risk management matters.

What stood out to me most in Jonny’s message was not simply that he has been happy with the service. It was the way he explained risk, warning signs, and recovery through his background in aviation.

His words capture something I believe is central to Asset Revesting.

Early warning signs are not there to create fear. They are there to preserve options.

They help protect capital before damage becomes harder to repair. They help reduce the need for long recovery periods. And for investors nearing or living through retirement, they can help protect the time, confidence, and flexibility that capital was meant to support.

With Jonny’s permission, here is what he shared:

Jonny’s Message

Hi, Chris and the entire team at TechnicalTraders,

I have been meaning to write for some time but had a pang for skiing in late Jan, so life’s been a bit random….anyway I have finally got around to it.

I have been with the Service now for approximately four years, and in short, it has been transformational in the way that I now look at markets and how I now assess risk.

To put this in context, I have been in financial markets for the last 30 years and like to think I’ve been reasonably successful. However, in truth, financial institutions with whom I was employed for over 20 of those years (typically) practice very clumsy, highly subjective methods of risk investment and risk management. Underscoring this is the collective knowledge expressed in the mantra of ‘if we all go down together, then that’s fine, everyone will be in the same place.’ In the meantime, they risk profile customers to the point of gobbledygook – very few investors know what is going on in reality, and fewer still understand the skills in reading price and momentum, etc.

Institutions also typically have a tendency to invest money based on narratives, which, whilst on the surface appear compelling and potentially valid, are not always made at the most appropriate time. A classic example here is Nuclear energy. However, as their ‘mandates’ typically require them to be ‘fully invested’ at all times, they use ‘diversification’ as camouflage. I once heard a learned fund manager refer to diversification and di-worseification!!

My first career was as an army officer, and I was fortunate enough to be taught to fly whilst serving, firstly light aircraft and then helicopters. The lesson I wish to use here – with regards to what I believe your service brings – is the most important lesson I learned whilst learning to fly.

Once airborne, and indeed whilst getting airborne, the key issue is understanding the dynamics of maintaining life and avoiding a stall. Airspeed(s) and stalls, fortunately, manifest themselves with certain early warnings that give warning of a stall (and everything that could follow)……. if certain actions are not immediately carried out.

I have grown to understand that your system at whichever level, BAN, ACS, or TTI, all come with excellent stall warning systems – each reflecting the sensitivity to price that each strategy involves.

The other lesson I learned from instructors was after a regrettably heavy landing. I was told any landing where you and the crew can walk away and the aircraft is airworthy is a good landing.

I think perhaps (given some of your comments, Chris, re some members being a little impatient, etc.) that many of the newer members to the service, do not quite understand the value of such fundamental indicators. As far as I’m concerned, and I am now 60 years of age, I cannot afford to miss these early warning signs and potentially experience a proper market sell-off or, worse still, a crash (I have lived through several, and they are chastening experiences).

Stall practice when learning to fly is always carried out from a recoverable height – so as to clearly experience the stall warning signs, the resulting loss of handling, and to practice the recovery. As I see it even if I were to recover the stall (sell off) I could (figuratively speaking) lose many thousands of feet (pounds in value) and maybe avoid a complete disaster. However, the impact of this on my morale would not be good, and moreover, not having plenty of dry ammunition to attack a new ‘stage 2’ would be very annoying also. Losing a few percentage points from time to time, I see as the inevitable hard landings that all pilots make on occasion. The aircraft remains airworthy, and you are able to fly again (and hopefully) get to where you want to go and enjoy the view.

I hope the analogies I have made above make sense. For me, the risk management aspect of your system is the element that stands out.

In addition, following your system, I have also found it helps me with what I call a ‘shy trigger finger.’ From my years of experience, I am relatively competent in and around the market, although at times like now, when I sense that danger is very elevated, it is very easy to miss out on an opportunity. If sensibly risk managed is asymmetrically favourable, by, for example, having an overly cautious trigger finger. Following the signals takes the emotion out of my placing a trade.

The fact that you do not take BAN trades at this juncture of the cycle (stage 3) again suggests that caution should be exercised, and as the pilots of our portfolios, all early warnings should be noted and given immediate attention.

To finish on a positive note, I am looking forward enormously to the time when you’re able to recommend a full commitment to a particular trade based on the charting evidence. I’m thinking of bonds, precious metals, and precious metals miners in particular and remain excited that with a portfolio of dry powder, I will be able to maximize these opportunities as and when they arrive.

So thank you, Chris and the team, for providing what I believe is the finest investment service out there, and in the knowledge and the spirit of knowing that we can never get everything right. I look forward to being a customer for many years to come.

Jonny Mogs

Why Early Warning Signs Matter

Jonny’s message stood out to me because he understands something many investors only begin to appreciate after living through several market cycles.

The goal is not simply to be invested or not invested. The goal is to recognize changing conditions early enough that capital is not forced into a deep, painful recovery. In aviation terms, warning signs matter because they give the pilot time to respond before a stall becomes unrecoverable. In markets, the same idea applies.

That is one of the core ideas behind Asset Revesting, the philosophy of protecting capital, time, and the years ahead. At The Technical Traders, ACS is one rules-based process we use to apply that philosophy through exposure management and market-condition analysis.

Jonny’s aviation analogy captures this well because flying is not about avoiding every bump, every hard landing, or every uncomfortable moment. It is about understanding the conditions, respecting the warning signs, and keeping the aircraft airworthy enough to continue the journey.

That is how I think about investing.

Preserving Options Before Damage Becomes Too Large

There will always be imperfect trades, frustrating pauses, missed moves, and difficult markets. No strategy gets everything right. But if the process helps protect capital, preserve flexibility, and reduce the time spent recovering from major losses, then it is doing something far more important than simply chasing every opportunity.

It is helping investors stay in position to keep moving forward.

That is also why cash, reduced exposure, or defensive positioning should not automatically be viewed as failure. In the right conditions, they can represent patience, discipline, and preparedness. Jonny called it “dry ammunition,” and I think that is a useful way to look at it. If capital is preserved during difficult conditions, it may be available when stronger opportunities begin to appear.

That matters because the real objective is not only to survive difficult markets. It is to remain ready for what comes next.

The Real Cost Of Missing The Warning Signs

This is the part of Jonny’s message that connects most closely with investors who are approaching retirement or already living through it. At that stage, the cost of a major decline is not just financial. It can affect morale, confidence, flexibility, income decisions, and the years ahead.

A market recovery may eventually happen, but the time spent waiting for that recovery does not come back.

That is why early warning signs matter.

They are not about fear. They are about awareness. They are not about predicting every market top or bottom. They are about respecting the evidence before a manageable decline becomes something that requires years to repair.

Jonny understands that.

He understands that protecting capital is not the opposite of growth. It is what allows growth to continue with less interruption. He understands that following a process can help reduce emotional decision-making. And he understands that sometimes the most valuable part of a strategy is not what it does during easy markets, but how it helps investors respond when conditions become more dangerous.

That is the spirit behind Asset Revesting.

Protect capital when risk rises. Participate when conditions improve. Preserve flexibility. Respect warning signs. And avoid turning every market setback into a long recovery process that consumes the time investors worked so hard to protect.

Because the goal is not simply to fly through every condition at full speed.

The goal is to keep the aircraft airworthy, protect the people on board, and, to the best of our ability, continue the journey with confidence to enjoy the view when the skies clear. And that is exactly what we do.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Investment Officer
TheTechnicalTraders.com

P.S. If you want to learn more about how I “plan the trade and trade the plan,” I’m inviting you on a one-on-one call with a team member to show you more proof of why asset revesting is the ideal strategy for a comfortable retirement.

Book your free call with my team now! Pick a day and time here.

Disclaimer:
The content published on this website, including blog posts, videos, research articles, and commentary, is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its affiliates are not registered as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or any state securities authority. The information provided is general in nature and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific individual. Nothing published on this site constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security, commodity, or financial instrument. The views expressed represent the opinions of the authors and are subject to change at any time without notice. Performance results discussed may include live trading outcomes and/or backtested or hypothetical data. Hypothetical results are inherently limited and do not reflect actual trading performance. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Testimonials and user experiences presented may not be representative of others and do not guarantee future success. Some content may contain affiliate links or promotional material, from which we may earn compensation. This does not influence our content or editorial independence. By accessing this website or consuming its content, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own financial decisions and agree to consult a licensed financial professional before acting on any information provided. If you don’t want to receive my help or these emails, please Unsubscribe