TTT – Evening Market Commentary
Just yesterday, we highlighted how price patterns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were setting up for a possible momentum push higher. Today, that move began to play out, with markets shaking off Fed jitters and triple-witching noise to advance strongly into the close. Once again, it reinforces the importance of focusing on the charts, not the headlines.
Today’s Market Action
It was another positive day for Wall Street, with stocks climbing across the board. The Nasdaq led with a +1.1% gain, outpacing the S&P 500’s +0.75% rise. Money was clearly flowing into growth and tech names, which carried the session higher.
While the trend remains up, we need to be mindful: the put/call ratio has been unusually skewed toward puts over the past five sessions. This is often an early warning sign that the broad market could pause or pull back 1–3% in the next week. Some of this imbalance may simply be tied to triple-witching options expiration, but it’s worth noting for risk management.
Sector & Asset Highlights
- Biggest Gainers: Cannabis stocks (MJ +4.18%) lit up the tape today, perhaps traders were celebrating an early weekend. Semiconductors (SMH +3.84%) weren’t far behind, continuing their strong recovery run.
- Biggest Losers: COPX slipped -0.66% and consumer staples (XLP -0.87%) lagged, suggesting investors rotated out of defensive names and back into higher-beta plays.
- Bonds (TLT): Treasuries edged slightly lower, digesting recent strength tied to rate-cut expectations. Nothing dramatic, just rebalancing flows.
- Gold & Silver: GLD eased -0.5% while SLV was flat after yesterday’s hit. Both remain in longer-term uptrends, but continue to churn on Fed noise. GDX miners tracked sideways.
- Crude Oil (USO): Oil remained stuck under declining moving averages, a sign sellers remain in control.
Member Comments:
Member Jmurray3056 asked about SMH’s trend. On the daily chart, semiconductors have been in a sharp recovery rally, building higher lows since their recent correction. Today’s strength adds to a constructive base breakout. Momentum is back in favor here, but keep in mind semis tend to be early leaders — both up and down — so they’re a sector we’ll continue to monitor closely for shifts in trend.
Member Sammy1 shared a story about a new driver scraping a car and learning the hard way not to flee the scene. Much like trading, breaking rules can turn a small mistake into a major problem. The takeaway: stick to the rules, whether on the road or in the markets, to avoid compounding the damage.
Open Positions Recap
ACS Strategy:
- SPY up +2.63% from entry (partial profits locked in)
- QQQ up +3.28% from entry (partial profits locked in)
BAN Strategy:
- SSO up +5.05% from entry (partial profits locked in)
- QLD up +6.56% from entry (partial profits locked in)
- XLC up +9.14% from entry (partial profits locked in)
- IBIT Closed Trade +1.5% Gain
- SILJ Closed Trade +10.25% Gain
TTI Strategy:
- SPY up +12.01% from entry
Discretionary Trade:
- PHYS up +4.59% from entry (partial profits locked in)
Closing Lesson
The markets remain strong, but we know from experience that sentiment extremes, option expirations, and volatility clusters can cause sudden reversals. That’s why we trade like defensive drivers — always scanning the mirrors, anticipating risks, and sticking to the rules of the road. Our strategies keep us positioned for gains while protecting us when the trend shifts.
At the end of the day, it’s never about predicting every twist and turn — it’s about managing risk, protecting capital, and letting compounding work for us over time.
Chris Vermeulen
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