The Beginning of the END
Good evening, traders and investors.
Markets bounced again today, extending Monday’s rebound and delivering a strong session across the board. Equities gapped higher at the open, driven by renewed optimism after last week’s tariff shock, but as we discussed this morning, gaps above resistance rarely hold cleanly.
By mid-day, early enthusiasm faded as FOMO buying gave way to another round of profit-taking. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended positive, but intraday action continues to highlight a highly emotional, back-and-forth market—one that flips from panic to greed and back within hours.
Market Insights, News & Economy
Stock Market Trend
Today’s session was dominated by FOMO buying at the open, followed by steady selling into midday.
- The FOMO indicator broke above its upper threshold early, signaling crowd euphoria before prices reversed lower.
- On the 10-minute chart, we saw multiple price spikes—each one tested and filled—showing classic short-term exhaustion.
- The volume-by-price profile suggests a sticky range forming just below resistance. This zone may cap upside attempts for now.
While the longer-term trend remains technically green, the market’s internal strength is eroding. Our models show a setup similar to the prior pre-correction topping phase, when smart money rotated out even as retail traders kept pushing prices higher.ggest the market is close to a potential trend shift if weakness returns later this week.
Utilities Flash Another Warning
Utilities (XLU) remain on fire, dramatically outperforming the broad market yet again.
This has been our leading caution signal for weeks. Persistent utility leadership during a rally is a classic defensive tell—it often precedes a market stall or deeper correction.
While utilities may soon correct along with everything else, their current strength reinforces the view that institutional money is preparing for turbulence.ons while continuing to hold QQQ and XLC until their respective signals complete.
Precious Metals Surge Again
Gold and silver extended their rallies today, continuing to act as the safe-haven of choice regardless of what equities do.
- Volume keeps ramping higher as momentum buyers pile in.
- This behavior—rising volume with rising price—confirms strong conviction, though it also raises capitulation risk as late buyers chase momentum.
One member asked about silver’s breakout above $50 and whether that triggers a new buy signal.
From a pure technical and risk-management standpoint: no.
We don’t chase after parabolic moves. If you’re already long from prior signals, enjoy the ride and protect gains. But entering fresh here would be chasing price, not trading strategy.
We already closed our short-term gold trade at the measured move target—perfectly timed at the Fibonacci peak we were aiming for.
That was a discretionary swing, separate from long-term holdings.
Long-term investors should remain positioned for higher precious metals over the coming weeks or even months.. Momentum and trend alignment always override emotion and news.
Gold, Dollar, and Correlation Myths
Several members asked about how gold moves relative to the U.S. dollar.
The truth: there is no fixed relationship.
Sometimes both rise together; sometimes they diverge. Correlations shift with market context.
Right now, gold and the dollar are rallying together—a dynamic often seen in stress periods when investors seek liquidity and safety simultaneously.
That’s why we trade price, not assumptions. Markets evolve; past correlations don’t guarantee future performance.
Historical Analog: 2007 Comparison
Overlaying current price action against 2007 shows an eerily similar setup:
- The S&P 500 is testing highs as gold accelerates upward.
- In 2007, stocks topped while gold continued to rise, attracting inflows from equities before both eventually reversed.
- Gold went on to gain sharply before the stock market breakdown eventually dragged it lower.
We could be entering the early stages of that pattern again—with equities starting to wobble, and precious metals pushing toward a potential blow-off phase.
While the recent gold swing was short-term, I continue to expect potential blow-off highs ahead, possibly reaching $4,500–$5,000 if market stress expands.
TDividend Stocks & Rotation Themes
Dividend-focused equities continue to underperform.
The S&P 500 High Dividend ETF keeps stair-stepping lower, showing that big capital isn’t chasing yield or “blue chip safety.”
Instead, small caps (Russell 2000) and high-beta sectors keep drawing the flow.
This split—defensive sectors strong, speculative areas euphoric—is another hallmark of late-stage market behavior.; the previous 15% gain captured in the bonus trade was tactical and complete.
Member Q&A Highlights
1. TFSA & RSP Accounts (Canada)
For members who can’t convert currencies in registered accounts:
- The DLR ETF offers a way to gain exposure to U.S. dollar movement within Canadian accounts.
- DLR also pays small dividends and can serve as a temporary parking spot during cash phases.
2. Energy Sector & ERY Inverse Setup
Energy has begun to crack, and ERY (inverse energy ETF) is on watch.
We do have a sell signal on the general stock market trend, but I’m not entering new discretionary trades yet—volatility feels random, and timing isn’t ideal.
If markets confirm a deeper breakdown, ERY and inverse real estate ETFs could become strong candidates. For now, capital protection takes priority.
Metals: Platinum, Palladium, and GLTR
- Platinum is flagging bullishly, holding a running correction that could break higher soon.
- Palladium continues its explosive move.
- GLTR, the basket ETF of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, has gone parabolic, with massive volume surging in recent days.
If you hold multiple metals positions—gold, silver, GLTR, miners—remember they are the same trade. They will rise together and fall together.
Trimming partial profits, tightening stops, or scaling out gradually helps avoid the emotional trap of watching everything spike and then collapse at once.
Key Takeaways
- Equities: Still volatile, flipping daily between fear and greed. Trend softening.
- Utilities: Outperforming again—clear defensive signal.
- Gold/Silver: Strong and extended; enjoy profits, don’t chase.
- Dollar: Rising alongside gold—trade what’s real, not what “should” happen.
- Energy: Cracking; ERY setup worth monitoring.
- GLTR/Metals: Parabolic; scale out gradually to protect gains.
Bottom Line
We’re in a transition phase — emotional markets, late-stage rotation, and heightened volatility.
Precious metals are thriving, utilities keep flashing caution, and equities are struggling to sustain momentum.
The next few sessions could define whether this is just consolidation or the start of a broader reversal.
Stay patient, manage risk, and remember: trend confirmation beats prediction every time.
Talk soon, and trade safe.
Chris Vermeulen
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