I bet you are feeling FOMO today!
Good evening, traders and investors.
After Friday’s sharp tariff-induced selloff, Monday delivered a powerful rebound. The markets gapped sharply higher at the open and held gains throughout the session, producing a strong relief rally that erased a good portion of last week’s damage.
Friday’s panic selling and heavy volume drove the short-term indicators into extreme oversold territory, which often signals a near-term bottom. Today’s surge reflects that emotional pendulum swinging back from fear to FOMO—a hallmark of short-term trading psychology.
Market Insights, News & Economy
Stock Market Trend
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced hard off Friday’s lows. We went from panic selling to full-blown FOMO in just one trading day, with investors bailing on Friday and piling back in hand over fist on Monday.
- The 30-minute chart now shows a classic FOMO bounce pattern — strong upside follow-through that often precedes another quick dip as the market digests the move.
- Based on Fibonacci projections, the S&P 500 could easily retest the 6,440 zone (roughly 3.6% lower) if this rebound rolls over into a second leg down.
While the longer-term trend remains technically green, short-term momentum is fragile, and several indicators suggest the market is close to a potential trend shift if weakness returns later this week.
Sentiment: Smart Money vs. Public Money
The tape continues to show divergence between insider flows and retail behavior.
- Big money has been quietly rotating out of equities while the general public drives prices higher.
- This mirrors prior late-stage behavior when institutions distribute shares into retail enthusiasm before a pullback.
For now, the uptrend holds, but we’re watching closely for confirmation of a trend reversal signal across the S&P and QQQ. If triggered, we’ll exit our SPY (ACS) and SSO (BAN) positions while continuing to hold QQQ and XLC until their respective signals complete.
Leverage & Inverse Trades
A number of members noted they entered inverse ETFs or 3x shorts into Friday’s weakness. As discussed last week, that’s a high-risk, counter-trend move.
- The major trend is still up, and shorting into an oversold condition is essentially gambling that the trend is ending.
- Friday’s move was news-driven, not a confirmed trend break, and today’s rally left those inverse positions deep underwater.
In a rising trend, we hold or buy dips, not short them. Momentum and trend alignment always override emotion and news.
Sector & Flow Analysis
- Small caps (IWM) led today’s rally, signaling renewed risk appetite.
- Retail rebounded sharply, fully recovering Friday’s tariff losses. This “V-shaped” move suggests either quick speculation or foreknowledge of the news cycle — insider positioning remains a strong possibility.
- Dollar (DXY) rose +0.3%, building another potential launch pad.
- Gold surged +3.25%, while silver also gained — confirming continued safe-haven demand even as equities bounced.
Gold Update & Strategy Clarification
Our recent gold trade (PHYS) was a discretionary bonus trade, not part of the core long-term position.
- We hit our measured move target perfectly, locking in profits before the market’s quick pullback.
- Long-term, I remain bullish on gold, still holding all physical positions established in 2019 for the ongoing secular bull run.
Short-term trades and long-term investments serve different timeframes — a critical distinction for members following both the ACS system and my bonus discretionary trades.
While the recent gold swing was short-term, I continue to expect potential blow-off highs ahead, possibly reaching $4,500–$5,000 if market stress expands.
Trend Systems & Portfolio Signals
We’re approaching possible trend-exit levels on the S&P 500 within both ACS and BAN.
If triggered:
- The ACS SPY position and BAN SSO trade will close.
- We’ll continue running QQQ and XLC until Nasdaq and sector signals confirm trend exhaustion.
There are no new gold entries planned; the previous 15% gain captured in the bonus trade was tactical and complete.
Broader Market Behavior
The speculative sectors remain extremely active: silver, uranium, clean tech, lithium, copper, blockchain, and marijuana continue to dominate the hot list.
We’re seeing 6–7% daily swings, heavy volume, and wide intraday gaps — all clear signs of late-stage volatility and emotional money-chasing.
This type of environment often precedes topping action, with rotations accelerating between speculative themes before an eventual consolidation or correction.
Outlook
- Short-term: After today’s FOMO surge, markets could roll back over midweek toward the 6,440 S&P target zone.
- Medium-term: We remain in an uptrend, though momentum is weakening and a trend signal reversal could trigger soon.
- Gold & Silver: Safe havens remain firm — strength here often hints at equity stress ahead.
- Dollar: Rising quietly — another early warning sign of potential risk aversion.
Key Takeaways
- Equities: Sharp rebound from Friday’s selloff; trend intact but fragile.
- Sentiment: FOMO replaced panic; insiders still distributing.
- Inverse ETFs: High-risk countertrend plays — avoid guessing tops.
- Gold: Short-term trade completed; long-term bullish view unchanged.
- Volatility: Hot money chasing speculative sectors — classic late-stage behavior and gives traders FOMO.
- Watchlist: 6,440 S&P zone for potential retest; gold for breakout continuation.
Bottom Line
Markets did what they do best — flip emotions overnight. From Friday’s fear to Monday’s euphoria, we’re seeing traders chase headlines and momentum.
The trend remains up but vulnerable, with insider selling and defensive flows signaling that this rally could soon stall.
Gold continues to lead, dollar strength is building quietly, and speculative sectors are flashing classic late-cycle volatility.
Stay disciplined, follow the system signals, and let price—not emotions—dictate every move.
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