ORCL shakes things up, its a good thing for S&P 500, Gold, and Silver
Stocks are trading lower today after Oracle’s miss that sent its stock price tumbling 12%. That has created a little fear and selling, but overall, nothing out of the norm, and we have been expecting some shakeup to cleanse the market.
Gold and silver are trading higher, which is exciting to see.
MARKET OVERVIEW
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq: traded sideways most of Wednesday, then spiked on the Fed news and closed positive.
- Overnight: Oracle’s poor results sparked a sharp pre-market selloff, triggering stop runs and panic dips across major indices.
- Nasdaq fell –1.6% overnight, but has since recovered more than half of those losses.
- This quick flush may have been the “shakeout” markets needed before the next leg higher.
As we noted earlier this week, the market had several clustered stop levels below recent lows. Those were cleared overnight — exactly the type of short-term washout that often precedes another advance.
Meanwhile, fear continues to rise. The VIX has been climbing steadily even as prices hold firm — a setup that often ends with a rally “wall of worry” once traders finally give up waiting for the pullback.
SECTOR & ASSET FLOWS
- Small Caps & Dow: rebounded strongly this morning, showing resilience outside tech as money looks for opportunities beyond the AI trade.
- Bonds: up +0.3%, but still locked in a long-term basing pattern with little direction.
- Rates & Dollar: both drifting lower in recent sessions, but longer-term, the data still supports the idea that inflation and yields could rise again — a setup that could pressure real estate and bonds while supporting commodities.
PRECIOUS METALS: STRENGTH BROADENING
The precious metal space remains the bright spot in this market:
- Gold: up +0.3%, quietly building a tight bull flag within a larger uptrend.
- Silver: up +2.5%, the clear leader, now extending after its breakout earlier this week.
- Platinum +2.3%, Palladium +1.6%: rebounding sharply after heavy selling Wednesday.
- GDX (Gold Miners): pattern projects +8–9% potential upside near-term.
- SILJ (Silver Miners): still coiled for a possible +15–16% breakout move toward $30+.
Rising metals alongside rising fear signals investors are quietly hedging for instability — confirming the “something big is brewing” theme our long-term cycle models have warned about.
ENERGY & COMMODITIES
- Oil: down –1% and flirting with a technical breakdown near $55–56. A decisive move lower could accelerate toward the mid-$40s.
- Natural Gas: down –3.6%, now off 20% in five sessions — living up to its “widowmaker” nickname.
- Both markets remain highly volatile and news-sensitive; traders should stay defensive.
BIG PICTURE & LONG-TERM CYCLE
The Benner Cycle, which historically marks major turning points, continues to line up with our own stage analysis. It suggests 2025–2026 could mark a cyclical high, followed by several difficult years for equities and real estate.
That doesn’t mean panic — it means prepare.
Periods like this tend to reshape wealth, transferring it from emotional investors to disciplined ones who follow price, not prediction.
BITCOIN & TECH
- Bitcoin: down –2.7%, forming a bear flag that warns of potential lower lows toward $70K if support breaks.
- Oracle: down –13% overnight after a +40% rally earlier this quarter.
- NVIDIA: holding surprisingly well, showing that fear is stock-specific, not systemic — yet.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Oracle’s miss triggered a healthy market shakeout, clearing stops and calming speculative excess.
- Fear rising while prices hold = constructive backdrop for a rally.
- Precious metals remain the strongest sector — silver leading, miners coiled.
- Oil and gas weak; Bitcoin vulnerable; tech shaken but not broken.
- Long-term cycles point to 2025–2026 as a potential turning point — the time to protect capital and stay tactical.
BOTTOM LINE:
The shakeout may be over. With stops cleared and sentiment stretched, we could soon see the next rally leg — led by precious metals and select equities, not speculation.
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Chris Vermeulen
Founder, The Technical Traders
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