New Highs for Stocks & Gold – Plus New Trends Starting

ByTTT

Good evening, traders and investors.
Markets closed stronger again today, following the exact path we’ve been tracking: a gap-lower open that was quickly bought, a steady “gap-and-go,” and then a late-day push higher. SPY’s bull-flag pattern continues to play out, pushing indices into fresh all-time highs. Let’s break it down.

Market Insights, News & Economy

Stock Market Trend
U.S. equities advanced steadily, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting new all-time highs intraday. The gap down was bought immediately, confirming the “gap-and-go” scenario we expected.

Key Economic Data
Markets remain focused on the upcoming jobs report, with lingering concern that a government shutdown could delay its release. Without jobs data, the Fed has less clarity, but for now, markets continue to ride momentum.

Headline News
Healthcare surged again, up another ~3% today after yesterday’s strong move. The back-to-back gains suggest a news-driven catalyst, though the sector remains structurally messy longer-term.

Equity Markets: Bull Flag in Motion

  • Classic setup today: gap down, buyers stepped in, and indices closed near highs.
  • SPY’s 30-min bull flag: first leg reached the 0.618 retrace, paused, and is now working toward the 100% measured move — about another +1% upside.
  • Utilities outperformed again, a yellow flag. Sustained utility leadership over SPX often precedes market pullbacks, so keep this in mind even as trend remains up.
  • Overall, the trend is still higher. Respect it, ride it, but be prepared for digestion once the flag completes.

Precious Metals: Gold On Track

  • Several members asked why ACS doesn’t hold gold directly. The answer: ACS rotates among the major asset classes (equities, bonds, currencies, cash). Metals are not core; we trade them via discretionary bonus setups when probability is high.
  • I continue to hold physical gold long-term and we remain long a gold ETF as a tactical play. First Fibonacci target was hit; the next measured target is around $4,100.
  • I may trim physical if we see a parabolic run in the next 6–8 weeks. Rules and risk first, emotion second.
  • Silver is pressing toward all-time highs. Historically, these parabolic moves often end with sharp pullbacks (30–60% in past cycles). The setup rhymes with 2007–2008, where euphoric blowoffs quickly gave way to crashes.

U.S. Dollar & Bonds

  • TLT closed higher today.
  • Today, the U.S. dollar opened sharply lower but recovered strongly, closing firm. The base-and-flag structure points to further upside — USD/CAD already signals U.S. dollar strength.

Member Notes & Questions

  • Healthcare: Back-to-back strong days on volume. Likely news-driven — exciting if you were already in, but risky to chase. The structure remains messy despite the surge.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Rallied ~20% in a few sessions. These “blowoff” runs are classic FOMO lures. Chasing them often ends badly once the momentum exhausts.
  • Personality & Trading: A member shared they are an INTJ (same as me) after taking the Myers-Briggs test. This type has an edge: logical, systems-based, less emotional. It aligns well with rule-based investing.
  • Gold strategy: Reminder: long-term physical gold position since 2019, plus tactical ETF trades. Targets unchanged — ~$4,100 next.
  • XLC: Still long, consolidating after hitting first target. Next targets +15% and +20% remain valid if momentum resumes.
  • Uranium (URA/others): Strong story, but not immune to broad liquidation. Treat as a trade, not a permanent safe haven. Lock in gains and re-enter on resets.

Key Takeaways

  • Equities: Bull flag still in motion, ~1% more upside likely before pause.
  • Metals: Gold on track for $4,100; silver nearing parabolic territory.
  • Dollar/Bonds: Dollar strength building; long bonds remain vulnerable.
  • Sectors: Utilities leadership = caution; healthcare’s surge looks news-driven.
  • Member Notes: Don’t chase HOOD; INTJ personality traits align well with rule-based systems; uranium is a trade, not “immune.”

Bottom Line

Equities continue to melt higher, with SPY’s bull flag pointing to fresh highs. Gold and silver are in late-stage breakout mode, but the risk of parabolic reversal is rising. The U.S. dollar is strengthening, and long bonds remain dangerous as rates trend higher. Stay long the trend, manage gold with rules, and don’t chase noisy moves or FOMO setups.

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